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Publications

Accepted or Submitted Papers
Published Papers
Contributions to IPCC Reports
Selected Published Reviews and Commentaries
Selected Chapters in Books
Books

Excel Climate-Carbon Cycle Tutorial and Model

 


 

 

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Published Papers

Unpublished: Reflections on the Keystone Xl Pipeline and Tar Sands Expansion.

72) Elsholtz S, Harvey LDD, Dowsett P. "Spandrel thermal preformance", Ontario Association of Architects Perspectives 22(3), 38-39, 2014.

71) "Sustainability - Definitions and Criteria", Ontario Association of Architects Perspectives 22(3), 23-24, 2014.

70) "Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios", Energy Policy 67, 473-487, 2014.

69) Harvey LDD, Korytarova K, Lucon O, Roshchanka V. "Construction of a global disaggregated dataset of building energy use and floor area in 2010", Energy and Buildings, 76, 488-496, 2014.

68) “Recent advances in sustainable buildings: review of the energy and cost performance of the state-of-the-art best practices from around the world”, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 38, 8.1-8.29, 2013.

67) “The potential of wind energy to largely displace existing Canadian fossil fuel and nuclear electricity generation”, Energy, 50, 93-102, 2013.

66) “Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios”, Energy Policy, 54, 87-103, 2013.

65) Mohareb E, Kennedy CA, Harvey LDD, & Pressnail KD. “Decoupling of building energy use and climate”. Energy and Buildings 43: 2961-2963, 2011.

64) "An overview of climate change science in 1977 marking the publication of Volume 100 of Climate Change", Climatic Change 100, 15-21 (2010)

63) “Reducing energy use in the buildings sector: Measures, costs, and examples”, Energy Efficiency 2, 136-163 (2009)

62) (2nd author with A. Cornwell) “Simulating AOGCM soil moisture using an off-line Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration-based land surface scheme. I. Control runs”, Journal of Climate 21, 3097-3117 (2008)

61) (1st author with Mark Siddall) "Advanced glazing systems and the economics of comfort", Green Building Magazine, Spring 08, pp 30-35 (2008).

60) “ Mitigating the atmospheric CO2 increase and ocean acidification by adding limestone powder to upwelling regions ”, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans113, C04028, doi:10.1029/2007/JC004383 (2008).

59) "Energy savings through treating buildings as systems", paper presented at the IAQVEC 2007 Conference, Sendai Japan, 28-31 October 2007, and published in the proceedings volume.(2007) link

58) (3rd author with W. Ju, J.M. Chen and  S. Wang) "Future carbon balance of China’s forests under climate change and increasing CO2”, Journal of Environmental Management 85(3):538-562 (2007)

57) (2nd author with D. Urge-Vorsatz, S. Mirasgedis, and M.D. Levine) “Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Use in the World’s Buildings”, Building Research and Information 35(4):379-398 (2007).

56) (2nd author with A.R. Cornwell) “Soil moisture: A residual problem underlying AGCMs”, Climatic Change 84:313-336 (2007).

55) “Net Climatic Impact of Solid Foam Insulation Produced with Halocarbon and non-Halocarbon Blowing Agents”, Building and Environment 42(8): 2860-2879, 2007. link

54) “Allowable CO2 Concentrations Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a Function of the Climate Sensitivity PDF”, Environmental Research Letters 2 (2007) 014001 link

53) “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference, Dangerous Climatic Change, and Harmful Climatic Change: Non-Trivial Distinctions with Significant Policy Implication”, Climatic Change 82:1-25. 2007 link

52) “ Uncertainties in global-warming science and near-term emission policies”, Climate Policy 6: 573-584, 2006. link

51) “Cogeneration, Trigeneration, and District Heating and Cooling – When Do they Save Energy?” Cogeneration and On-Site Power Production Sept-October 2006, pp 107-115
link

50) “Cutting the fossil fuel umbilical cord”, Ideas (U of T Arts and Science Magazine), 3(1): 6-9, 2006. link

49) “Declining temporal effectiveness of carbon sequestration: Implications for compliance with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, Climatic Change 63: 259-290, 2004. link

48) “Characterizing the climatic effect of anthropogenic GHG and aerosol emissions in five coupled AOGCMs”, Climate Dynamics 23: 569-599, 2004. link

47) “Impact of deep-ocean carbon sequestration on atmospheric CO2 and on surface-water chemistry”. Geophysical Research Letters 30(5), doi:10.1029/2002GLO16224, 2003. link

46) (1st author with T. Wigley) “Characterizing and comparing the control run variability of eight coupled AOGCMs and of observations. Part 1: Temperature”, Climate Dynamics 21: 619-646, 2003. link

45) “Characterizing and comparing the control run precipitation variability of eight coupled AOGCMs and of observations. Part 2: Precipitation”, Climate Dynamics 21: 647-658, 2003. link

44) (1st author with R. Kaufmann) “Simultaneously constraining climate sensitivity and aerosol radiative forcing”, Journal of Climate 15: 2837-2861, 2002.

43) (1st author with Z. Huang) "A quasi-one-dimensional coupled climate-carbon cycle model, Part1: Description and behavior of the climate component”, Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans 106: 22339-22353, 2001. link

42) “A quasi-one-dimensional coupled climate-carbon cycle model, Part II: The carbon cycle component”, Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans 106: 22355-22372, 2001. link

41) “Upscaling in Global Change Research”, Climatic Change 44: 225-263, 2000. link

40) “An assessment of the potential impact of a downward shift of tropospheric water vapor on climate sensitivity”, Climate Dynamics 16: 491-500, 2000. link

39) (one of 4 co-authors with D.J. Wuebbles) “Global change: State of the science”, Environmental Pollution 100: 57-86, 1999.

38) (2nd author with B. DeAngelo) "The jurisdictional framework for municipal action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: Case studies from Canada, the USA, and Germany ", Local Environment 3: 111-136, 1998.

37) (one of 10 co-authors with M.I. Hoffert) “Energy implications of future stablilization of atmospheric CO2 content”, Nature 395: 881-884, 1998. link

36) (1st author with R. Torrie and R. Skinner) “Achieving ecologically-motivated reductions of Canadian CO2 emissions”, Energy - The International Journal 22: 705-724, 1997. link

35) (1st author with E.J. Bush) “Joint implementation: A strategy for combatting global warming?” Environment 39: 14-20, 36-43, 1997. link

34) (2nd author with E.J. Bush) “Joint implementation and the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, Global Environmental Change 7: 265-285, 1997. link

33) “Polar boundary layer plumes and bottom water formation - A missing element in ocean GCM's”, Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans 101: 20799-20808, 1996. link

32) “Development of a risk-hedging CO2 emission policy: Part I: Risks of unrestrained emissions”, Climatic Change 34: 1-40, 1996. link

31) “Development of a risk-hedging CO2 emission policy: Part II: Risks associated with measures to limit emissions, synthesis, and conclusions”, Climatic Change 34: 41-71, 1996. link

30) (3rd author with W.H. Lambright and S.A. Changnon) “Urban reactions to the global warming issue: Agenda setting in Toronto and Chicago ”, Climatic Change 34: 463-478, 1996. link

29) (1st author with Z. Haung) “Evaluation of the potential impact of methane clathrate destabilization on future global warming”, Journal of Geophysical Research 100: 2905-2926, 1995. link

28) “Solar-hydrogen electricity generation in the context of global CO2 emission reduction”, Climatic Change 29: 53-89, 1995. link

27) “Solar-hydrogen electricity generation and global CO2 emission reduction”, Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 21: 583-595, 1996 [ Note: This is a condensed version of the preceding paper, which I prepared after the editor had originally asked for permission to reprint the original paper]

26) “Impact of isopycnal diffusion in a two-dimensional ocean model”, Journal of Physical Oceanography 25: 2166-2176, 1995.

25) “Creating a global warming implementation regime”, Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions 5: 415-432, 1995. link

24) “Transient temperature and sea level response of a two-dimensional ocean-climate model to greenhouse gas increases”, Journal of Geophysical Research 99: 18447-18466, 1994. link

23) “A guide to global warming potentials (GWPs)”, Energy Policy 21: 24-34, 1993. [reprinted in Tisglow 4 (2): 77-68, 1993] link

22) (3rd author with F. Boyce, P.F. Hamblin, W.M. Schertzer, and R.C. McCrimmon) "Response of the thermal structure of Lake Ontario to Deep Cooling withdrawals and to global warming", Journal of Great Lakes Research 19: 603-616, 1993.

21) “Tackling urban CO2 emissions in Toronto ”, Environment 35: 16-20, 38-44, 1993. link

20) “A two-dimensional ocean model for long-term climatic simulations: Stability and coupling to atmospheric and sea ice models”, J. Geophys. Res. 97: 9435-9453, 1992.

19) “Managing Atmospheric CO2: Policy Implications”, Energy - The International Journal 15: 91-104, 1990. link

18) “Testing alternative parameterizations of lateral melting and upward basal heat flux in a thermodynamic sea ice model”, Journal of Geophysical Research 95: 7359-68, 1990.

17) “Modelling the Younger Dryas”, Quaternary Science Reviews 8: 137-149, 1989.

16) “Transient Climatic Response to an Increase of Greenhouse Gases”, Climatic Change 15: 15-30, 1989. link

15) “An energy balance climate model study of radiative forcing and temperature response at 18 Ka BP”, Journal of Geophysical Research 94: 12873-12884, 1989.

14) “Milankovitch forcing, vegetation feedback, and North Atlantic deep water formation”, Journal of Climate 2: 800-815, 1989.

13) “Effect of model structure on the response of terrestrial biosphere models to CO2 and temperature increases”, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 3: 137-153, 1989.

12) “Managing Atmospheric CO2 ”, Climatic Change 15: 343-381, 1989. link

11) “A semi-analytic energy balance climate model with explicit sea ice and snow physics”, Journal of Climate 1: 1065-85, 1988.

10) “Development of a sea ice model for use in zonally averaged energy balance climate models”, Journal of Climate 1: 1221-38, 1988.

9) “On the role of high latitude ice, snow, and vegetation feedbacks in the climatic response to external forcing changes”, Climatic Change 13: 191-224, 1988. link

8) “Climatic impact of ice age aerosols”, Nature 334: 333-335, 1988.

7) (2nd author with S.H. Schneider), “Computational efficiency and accuracy of methods for asynchronously coupling atmosphere-ocean climate models. Part I: Testing with a mean annual model”, Journal of Physical Oceanography 16 (1): 3-10, 1986.

6) “Computational efficiency and accuracy of methods for asynchronously coupling atmosphere-ocean climate models. Part II: Testing with a seasonal cycle”, Journal of Physical Oceanography 16 (1): 11-24, 1986.

5) “Effect of ocean mixing on the transient climate response to a CO2 increase: Analysis of recent model results”, Journal of Geophysical Research 91 (D2): 2709-2718, 1986.

4) (1st author with S.H. Schneider), "Transient climate response to external forcing on 10^ 0 - 10^ 3 year time scales. Part 1: Experiments with globally averaged, coupled atmosphere and ocean energy balance models", Journal of Geophysical Research 90 (D1): 2191-2205, 1985.

3) (1st author with S.H. Schneider), "Transient climate response to external forcing on 10^0 - 10^ 4 year time scales. Part 2: Sensitivity experiments with a seasonal, hemispherically averaged, coupled atmosphere, land, and ocean energy balance model", Journal of Geophysical Research 90 (D1): 2207-2222, 1985.

2) “Shearing and kolking phenomena in fluvial sediments, Old Crow River , Yukon Territory , Canada ”, Journal of Sedimentary Petrology 50: 787-792, 1980.

1) “Solar variability as a contributing factor to Holocene climatic change”, Progress in Physical Geography, 487-530, 1980.

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Contributions to IPCC Reports

(Lead author in M.D. Levine et al.) “Residential and Commercial Buildings”, in B. Metz and O. Davidson (editors), Mitigation of Climate Change, IPCC Working Group III Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 (in press). link

(Convening Lead Author), An Introduction to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCC Second Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Technical Paper No. 2, 1997. link

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Selected Published Reviews and Commentaries

“Commentary on the Exchanges Between Fearnside and Rosa Concerning the Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Hydro-electric Power Dams”, Climatic Change (in press) link

New Year's Resolution on Global Warming (to the Federal Government), U of Toronto Bulletin, 12 December 2005. link

“Constraining the aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity: An editorial comment”, Climatic Change 44 , 413-418, 2000. link

“Upscaling in Global Change Research, Guest Editorial”, Climatic Change 44, 223, 2000. link

Review of “Scaling Up: From Cell to Landscape”, Climatic Change 42: 485-487, 1999. link

Review of “Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 , 924-926, 1997

"Warm days, hot nights", Nature 377 , 15-16 [invited commentary], 1995.

Review of "Buying Greenhouse Insurance: The Economic Costs of CO2 Emission Limits" by A.S. Manne and R.G. Richels, Climatic Change 28 , 405-410, 1994. link

Comments on "An empirical study of the economic effects of climate change on world agriculture" by S. Kane, J. Reilly and J. Tobey, Climatic Change 24 , 273-275, 1993. link

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Selected Chapters in Books

"Fast and slow feedbacks in future climates”, in The Future of the World’s Climate, 2nd Edition(Ann Henderson-Sellers and Kendell McGuffie, editors), Elsevier Academic Press, Amsterdam, 2012, 99-139

“Climate and Climate System Modelling”, Chapter B.1 of Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity, 2nd Edition (J. Wainwright and M. Mulligan, editors), John Wiley, 2011.

Energy savings by treating buildings as systems”, in D. Hafemeister, B.G. Levi, M.D. Levine and P. Schwartz, Physics of Sustainable Energy. American Institute of Physics, AIP Conference Proceedings 1044 (2008)

A Transportation Vision for Toronto”, in GreenTOpia: Visions for a Greener Toronto, Coach House Press, Toronto, pp. 168-177 (2007)

“Climate Change: Addressing Complexity, Uncertainty, and Conflict", in Resource and Environmental Management in Canada, Addressing Conflict and Uncertainty, 3rd Edition, B Mitchell (editor), Oxford University Press, 2004.

“Climate and Climate System Modelling”, Chapter B.1 of Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity (J. Wainwright and M. Mulligan, editors), John Wiley, 2004.

"Climatic Change", in The Surface Climates of Canada , W.G. Bailey, W.R. Rouse and T.R. Oke (eds), CAG Series, McGill-Queens Press, Montreal , pages 328-351, 1997.

"Implementation at the local level: The role of municipalities", In Global Climate Change: Implications, Challenges, and Mitigation Strategies , S.K. Majumdar, L.M. Rosenfeld, B. Yarnal, W. Miller, and L. Kalkstein (eds.), Pennsylvania Academia of Sciences, pages 423-438, 1992.

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Published Books

Climate and Global Environmental Change (2000, Prentice Hall)

Information and on-line orders from Canada
Information and on-line orders from USA
Information and on-line orders from elsewhere

Global Warming: The Hard Science (2000, Prentice Hall)

Information and on-line orders from Canada
Information and on line orders from USA
Information and on-line orders from elsewhere

A Handbook on Low-Energy Buildings and District Energy Systems: Fundamentals, Techniques, and Examples (July 2006, James and James/Earthscan, UK)

Preface
Table of Contents
Chapter 16, Summary and Conclusions
Order form and endorsements

Review in the email newsletter Get Sust
Review in Spring 2007 newsletter of Society of Building Science Educators
On line orders and information

 

Energy and the New Reality, Volume 1: Energy Efficiency and the Demand for Energy Services (March 2010, Earthscan, UK)

This book and Volume 2 comprehensively and critically assess what it would take to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at no greater than 450 ppmv. Some of the key conclusions from these books are that
•      it is still technically and economically feasible to cap CO2 at no more than 450 ppmv without replacing existing nuclear power capacity as it retires and without resorting to carbon capture and storage (CCS), although the latter could be – in combination with bioenergy – part of a strategy to more rapidly draw down atmospheric CO2 from its peak than would otherwise occur;
•      nuclear energy and CCS would, at best, be too little too late, whereas reliable C-free energy systems can be built up on the required time frame and likely at no greater cost than nuclear energy or CCS; and
•      we will almost certainly have to abandon our insistence on continuous economic growth above all else if we are to have a reasonable chance of avoiding eventual global ecological and social catastrophe.

Publisher's webpage for Volume 1 with request for inspection copy for professors

Flyer for purchase of both volumes with a 20% discount

Table of Contents and Chapter Highlights

Chapter 11 (Policies)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 1 (Introduction)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 2 (Energy basics)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 3 (Electricity from fossil fuels)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 4 (Buildings)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 5 (Transportation)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 6 (Industry)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 7 (Agriculture and the food system)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 8 (Municipal services)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 9 (Community-integrated energy systems)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 10 (Scenarios)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 11 (Policies)

All Powerpoint Files

Energy and the New Reality, Volume 2: Carbon-Free Energy Supply (April 2010, Earthscan, UK)

Publisher's webpage for Volume 2 and request for inspection copy for professors

Flyer for purchase of both volumes with a 20% discount

Table of Contents and Chapter Highlights

Chapter 13 (Policy sketch and concluding thoughts)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 1 (Introduction)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 2 (Solar energy)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 3 (Wind energy)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 4 (Biomass energy)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 5 (Geothermal energy)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 6 (Hydro-electric energy)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 7 (Oceanic energy)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 8 (Nuclear energy)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 9 (Carbon capture and storage)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 10 (Hydrogen economy)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 11 (Community-integrated energy systems)

Powerpoint file for Chapter 12 (Scenarios)

All Powerpoint Files

Files Used to generate the ENR energy supply (Volume 1) and demand (Volume 2) scenarios, and associated CO2 emissions

Excel File

Building Stock Turnover Model in Excel

FORTRAN code (building stock turnover model)

Input data file for FORTRAN code, low building floor area

Input data file for FORTRAN code, high building floor area

Excel Climate and Carbon Cycle Tutorial and Model

Draft Excel Climate-Carbon Cycle Tutorial and Model (after opening this file, select "Enable Macros")

Explanation of Draft Climate-Carbon Cycle Tutorial and Model

Overview of the ENR and Climate-Carbon Cycle Files Posted Above

The idea behind posting the Excel files and FORTRAN code used for the Energy and The New Reality books is to permit those who are so interested to generate their own scenarios with their own input assumptions concerning population, GDP per person, activity levels per person, and physical energy intensities for various energy end uses in 10 different geopolitical regions, as well as to generate scenarios for energy supply from various C-free energy sources. Outputs from these files include global demand for fuels and electricity, annual material and energy inputs required to build a new energy infrastructure, land requirements for bioenergy, and annual and cumulative CO2 emissions to 2100 (the CO2 emissions in turn were used as inputs to a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to produce the scenarios of global mean warming and ocean acidification that are given in ENR Volume 2). The FORTRAN code applies a building stock turnover model to 2 different energy sources (fuels and electricity) in two different building sectors (residential and commercial) in the 10 geopolitical regions, and uses as input the growth in regional building floor area as generated from the Excel demand scenarios, along with a variety of other inputs.

The stock turnover model has also been implemented in Excel for one generic fuel, building type and region for those who wish to adjust the inputs to a particular region and building type of interest so as to explore the impact of alternative assumptions concerning growth in total floor area, rates of building renovation and replacement, and the change over time in the total energy intensity (annual energy use per unit floor area) of new buildings and of newly-renovated buildings.

The climate-carbon cycle Excel package (subsequently referred to as the CCC package) will be part of the online material associated with my chapter in the forthcoming 2nd edition of Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity (Wiley-Blackwell, John Wainwright and Mark Mulligan, eds.). It has three parts, the first of which contains a number of worksheets that explain the physics of climate change and the development and properties of simple climate and carbon cycle model components. The second part of the CCC package contains a highly-simplified representation of the energy demand and supply framework used in my two energy books. These give scenarios of global fossil fuel emissions of CO2. The CCC package also has worksheets that give land use emissions of CO2 and total anthropogenic emissions of CH4, N2O and halocarbons (all subject to alteration by the user). The impacts (radiative forcings) of tropospheric ozone and aerosols are computed in a manner that is roughly consistent with the fossil fuel and land use CO2 emissions. The third part of the CCC package contains a coupled climate-carbon cycle model (built from the components illustrated in Part 1) that is driven by the outputs from Part 2. The climate sensitivity and a number of carbon-cycle and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks can be specified (including the possibility of eventually catastrophic releases of CO2 and methane from permafrost regions beginning slowly at some user-specified threshold temperature change).

The climate-carbon cycle model in the CCC package can be driven either with the fossil fuel CO2 emissions that are generated from Part 2 of the package, or with the CO2 emissions that are produced from the Excel package for the two energy books (these emissions can be pasted into the CCC package). In this way, those who are so interested can explore the range of possible impacts on global mean warming (given uncertainty in climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks) resulting from very specific assumptions concerning future population, economic growth, activity levels and physical energy intensities at the regional level, and in the rate of deployment of C-free energy supplies at the global scale.


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